What's left to count in the House? Can Democrats hold the majority?
While very unlikely, there is a narrow path to keeping the majority for Democrats.
What's left to count in the House? Can Democrats hold the majority?

What's left to count in the House? Can Democrats hold the majority?

Democrats clinch Senate, House still up for grabs 02:47

House Republicans are in position to reach the 218 seats they need to flip the chamber after the midterm elections. As of Tuesday morning, CBS News estimates Republicans will win at least 216 seats, while Democrats are estimated to win at least 211 seats. 

In several outstanding races, Republicans are ahead. However, some toss-ups have been breaking for Democrats, and on Saturday night, CBS News projected that Democrats flipped Washington state's 3rd Congressional District, a seat the GOP was favored to hold.

There are currently six races in battleground districts where CBS News has not projected a winner. Of those remaining in battleground districts, three were rated as "toss-ups," one was in the "likely Democrat" category, one was "leaning Democrat" and one was "leaning Republican." 

Democratic strategists who work on House races this cycle say it would take a "miracle," but Democrats do have a possible path to retaining the majority. 

For Republicans, California could help them get to the edge of clinching the majority — if their candidates hold their leads. 

Mitchell said for any chance for Democrats to hold the House, they'd have to win in the 22nd, 27th and 41st Districts, all districts where the Republican incumbent is in the lead.

"If Democrats won all three of those races in California, then think the odds go up that the Democrats can hold the House. But if Democrats lose one of those three, the odds go way down. They lose two of those three, the door slams shut," Mitchell said. 

Sarah Chamberlain, president of the Republican Main Street Partnership group which works with more moderate House Republicans, said she's confident Republicans David Valadao and Ken Calvert will hold their seats. 

Republicans also lead in one other tight race: Colorado's 3rd District, where GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert is in the lead by around 1,100 votes with 99% of results in. 

Democratic incumbents were projected to win three Nevada seats. Maine's 2nd District and Alaska's At-Large District, two seats with ranked choice voting, were leaning Democrat. 

"From the math that we've done — I think it's a foregone conclusion [that Republicans take the House]," said Chamberlain. "But it's gonna be very close. It's gonna be just a couple of seats. And it shouldn't be I mean, this should have been a landslide, frankly."

In the primaries, Chamberlain's group supported Republican candidates like Reps. Peter Meijer of Michigan and Jamie Herrera-Beutler, House Republicans who were targeted by former President Donald Trump. Chamberlain argued that the moderate, mainstream candidates her group picked would have been more competitive in the general election, compared to the further-right candidates who beat them and were on the ballot.

She said that candidate quality issue, as well as a disconnect between Trump and the rest of the Republican establishment, was a reason control of the House remains so tight. 

"I don't think Trump's going away," Chamberlain said. "We just need to make better decisions with Trump. I do think some of the Trump candidates hurt us on Tuesday. And that's why we need to work together as a party and move forward."

Aaron Navarro is an associate producer for the political unit at CBS News, focusing on House and gubernatorial campaigns as well as the census and redistricting.

You can contact me for your opinions, suggestions and sponsored content. Mail: info@wmal.net

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